Behind the Marcin Gortat trade

The Washington Wizards have established a clear goal of making the playoffs this season for the first time in six years. The Wizards front office spent heavily this offseason, by granting the maximum extension to John Wall and $22 million over four years to Martell Webster. After winning half of their final 50 games last season, the Wizards entered this season with ample reason to believe that they could grab a lower seed in this year’s playoffs, given the lack of depth in the Eastern Conference. H

However, their optimism diminished when center Emeka Okafor sustained a herniated disc in his neck, which would keep him out indefinitely. The Wizards were not ready to risk their playoff aspirations on Okafor’s health, so general manager Ernie Grunfeld decided to trade Okafor and a protected 2014 first round pick to the Phoenix Suns for Marcin Gortat. 

It’s difficult to speculate on how long Okafor will be out but it’s safe to assume that the Wizards know more about his health than we do. Given the fact that Okafor recently said that he “hopes to return this season,” it doesn’t sound like he will be ready to play anytime soon.

If they did not trade for Gortat, the Wizards would have been left without a legitimate starting center for an extended period of time. The power forwards currently on the Wizards' roster, Nene Hilario, Trevor Booker and Al Harrington, are not capable of replicating Okafor’s production at center. Let’s take a look at how the Wizards key players struggled without Okafor last season.

Lineup	Mins	ORTG	DRTG	Net Rating
Wall-Beal-Nene-Okafor	170	111.8	87.9	+23.9
Wall-Beal-Nene (No Okafor)	95	108.0	106.4	+1.6

(Data from NBAwowy.com)

The Wizards' lineups that included their main players clearly needed Okafor to maintain a good defense. If the Wizards had the 106.4 defensive rating (which they had without Okafor) for the entire season, they would have placed 25th in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. Considering the fact that the Wizards had the least efficient offense last year, it’s hard to imagine that they would make the playoffs this year if they allowed 106.4 points per possession. The Wizards desperately needed to replace Okafor if they wanted to make the playoffs. Gortat should be a suitable defensive replacement for Okafor, as he provides similar rim protecting and defensive rebounding ability.

Advanced Stats for both guys from 2010-11 to 2012-13

Player	DRB%	BLK%	PER
Emeka Okafor (NOH/WAS)	24.9%	3.7	15.8
Marcin Gortat (ORL/PHX)	25.5%	3.5%	18.2

If plugging in Gortat for Okafor in the above lineups yields similar production, than the Wizards should be able to grab the No. 7 or No. 8 spot in the playoffs, provided all four players avoid significant injuries.

Furthermore, Gortat should actually provide an upgrade on the offensive end. While he is not as good on the offensive glass, Gortat is a better scorer from every area of the court. 

2012-13 season

Player	Less than 8 feet	8-16 feet	16-24 feet
Emeka Okafor (WAS)	216-381 (56.7%)	85-226 (37.6%)	27-80  (33.8%)
Marcin Gortat (PHX)	215-358 (60.1%)	59-152 (38.8%)	21-53 (39.6%)

The next question revolves around the importance of making the playoffs. While the Wizards may be able to sneak into the playoffs, it is highly unlikely that they will be able to advance past the first round. However, making the playoffs can be beneficial for a team even if they are only there for a short amount of time. For instance, participating in a playoff series and meaningful regular season games at the end of the year will provide valuable experience for Wall and Beal. Furthermore, a spot in the playoffs will help the organization reverse its pattern of losing and may help Washington become more of an attractive destination for free agents. Historically, Washington has had trouble attracting premier free agents, but that can change if they make the playoffs.   

Golden State also has not historically had much success with free agents; however, Dwight Howard and Andre Iguodala both expressed a desire to play there after watching the exciting and young Warriors in the playoffs. As a result, they successfully wooed Iguodala, and now they are looking like a championship contender. The Wizards are set to have somewhere between $10 million and $15 million in cap room next summer, so they have the financial flexibility to sign an all-star caliber player.

The Wizards have been receiving criticism for sacrificing a valuable pick in a draft with a multitude of talented players. However, rookies often struggle to live up to expectations when they are forced to develop in losing environments. In fact, the Wizards recent difficulty with developing their young players exemplifies this concept. Here’s a look at three of the Wizards recent first round draft selections, not including Beal from last year’s draft. 

Year	# Pick	Player
2010	17	Kevin Seraphin
2011	6	Jan Vesely
2011	18	Chris Singleton

Vesely and Singleton, in particular, have not developed as expected, as the Wizards recently declined their fourth-year options on both of these players. These guys may have struggled simply because they were not good selections, or perhaps because they have spent their whole careers playing in a losing situation. Do you really think these guys would experience similar career paths if they were drafted by San Antonio? 

One might argue that waiting a year, keeping the pick, and signing Gortat in free agency next summer would be a more prudent strategy. However, this argument is flawed in several ways. First, it is much easier to sign a player in free agency if you possess his bird rights. The fact that Washington has Gortat’s bird rights means that they can offer him more money and higher annual raises (7.5 percent versus 4.5 percent) than every other team in the league. It also means that they don’t have to use their cap room to acquire him next summer, as they can use the “Bird Exception” to re-sign him instead, while using their cap space on another free agent.

Furthermore, the protection on the draft pick is an important aspect of this trade because it limits the risks involved if the trade does not work as expected. The pick is top 12 protected in next year’s draft, and top 10 protected after that until the protection expires in 2020. Thus, if Gortat doesn’t help the Wizards make the playoffs, than the Wizards would retain their pick unless they end up in the No. 13 or No. 14 spot. It would have been better if the Wizards were able to put a top-14 protection on the pick rather than top-12, but regardless, the protection almost completely protects the Wizards from the consequences of a bad season.

Not trading for Gortat would have all but guaranteed that the Wizards continued to be a losing organization. Even if Gortat doesn’t help them reverse their losing ways, they mitigated the risk of the trade by protecting the draft selection. This trade shows that the Wizards are tired of losing and they are committed to making the playoffs, regardless of the long-term implications of striving for such a goal.