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donderdag 5 januari 2017

Why Rudy Gobert is easily the 2nd best center in the NBA

Have you ever heard of the term media bias? 


Media bias is the bias or perceived bias of journalists and news producers within the mass media in the selection of events and stories that are reported and how they are covered.

The NBA Unfortunately is largely build on the media choosing certain players which fit the bill and help them to market the product they call NBA. It seems more than anything that happens in American sports, some individuals, perceived as gods in their craft and that's all you hear about.

If you'd ask any common NBA fan to name the first 5 players that come to mind I can guarantee you that the list will go like this: LeBron, Durant, Curry and then they are probably left with naming Kobe and Jordan because at this point the NBA doesn't promote more players.

To give you one last telling example of media bias, think of Blake Griffin. Remember he was the NBA's posterboy during the LeBron "villain" narrative? Remember the ugly dunkcontest with the overhyped Kia hood dunk?

Now, nobody talks about Blake? He didn't regress.. He did get injured.. but it's the NBA who doesn't coddle him anymore and therefor "it's out of sight, out of mind".

So recently I conducted a little test to show some of my friends this is really a huge thing (not only in sports) by asking them who the best Centers in the NBA were (potential not included).

The results



No surpises right? 

Now let me first ask you who the most marketed centers in the league are?
Drummond, Whiteside (he's so loved), Embiid (he's funny..), Gasol (because.. Europe), Towns (posterboy of the new generation).

So the top-5 most marketed centers are 2,3,4,5,6 respectively.. Makes perfect sense, because the NBA would want to market the best players right?


So now let's get back to the Rudy Gobert story, and the reason why he's criminally underrated. In this list he's the 8th best center in the league and most people would rank him somewhere between 7-12th in a top centers list.

Rudy Gobert - (rank among centers)12.4 points per game (11th)
12.1 rebounds per game (4th)
0.9 assists per game (28th)
0.6 steals per game (20th)
2.6 blocks per game (1st)

His averages would suggest he's a OK/good player, somewhere in the 8th best center range. Not a great scorer, good rebounder and good paint defender. But here are some more stats.

FG% .681 (1st)
FT% 65% (14th)
ORB 3.3 (9th)
DRB 8.9 (4th)
Defensive win-shares 2.7 (1st)
DBPM 4,6 (2nd)
To make it objective (for the sake of testing the media bias at hand here) I put all defensive stats together into a formula to see which of the centers is the best at overall defense (cut-off is min 22 mins per game). This formula for the stats geeks among us makes use of the following stats for defense:

DREB, STL, BLK, DWS, DBPM, DREB%, STL%, BLK%
Rudy Gobert 142,2
Andre Drummond 127,5
DeAndre Jordan 112,5
Andrew Bogut 112,1
Dwight Howard 107
Joel Embiid 103,3
Myles Turner 101,4
Marc Gasol 101,3
Hassan Whiteside 99,8
DeMarcus Cousins 94,9

Argue me on this list, but these centers are the 10 best defensive centers in the NBA. I don't think you can really argue any name on this list. What it also shows you, is that Rudy Gobert is BY FAR the best defender at the center position. He's as much better as Andre Drummond (#2) as Drummond is better than DeAndre and Bogut (who are some pretty impressive defenders in their own right).

Another stat, which shows just how amazing Gobert is at rim-protecting and altering shots is his opponents FG% at the rim when he's in between. 


 I don't think anyone will argue about what I wrote above, it's what I will tell you below what will make you wonder. OFFENSE.

I made the same list/formula for offense taking into account the following stats.

PPG, ORPG, TO, ASS, PER, TOV%, AST%, OWS, WS, WS/48, OBPM, BPM, VORP
Again, all stats were adjusted to their importance within the game of basketball and their importance for centers in general. The list of offensive Juggetnauts is a little bit more surprising. Let's go top-12.

1 DeMarcus Cousins
2 Marc Gasol
3 Rudy Gobert
4 Karl-Anthony Towns
5 Brook Lopez
6 Al Horford
7 Mason Plumlee
8 Pau Gasol
9 Myles Turner
10 Dwight Howard
11 DeAndre Jordan
12 Joel Embiid

 I hear all the Karl-Anthony Towns fans go crazy right now, how can a 12 PPG scorer be better than a 21 PPG scorer? I think the rest of this list (outside of the frowns Gobert brings at his #3 spot) is pretty spot on and most won't argue that.

It's obvious that Cousins and Gasol are #1 / #2 offensive centers in the league, no argument there.

So how come is Gobert so high? Let's take a look. 



Towns plays 2.1 minutes more per game. 
The Player Efficiency Rating for both players in nearly identical, so we can disregard that. 
Towns has a usage which is allmost 2x as high as Gobert does. Obvious.. because Towns is the #1 option on the Timberwolves while Gobert is de 4th option on his Jazz team.
But here comes the big difference.

Put an average player (league average) in place of both Towns and Gobert and the Timberwolves would have 3,7 wins less, while Utah allmost goes back 7 wins. It also shows that when Gobert is in Utah performs 5.4 points better than their opponent while Minnesota only outperformes it's opponents with 2,9 points when Towns is on the floor. This also shows in their value over their replacement. Again the edge to Gobert.

But here comes the big crux.

I know most would have said that Minnesota is better than Utah.
Rubio/Dunn > Hill
LaVine > Hood
Wiggins = Hayward
Dieng < Favors
Towns > Gobert

Right? And obviously Minnesota has one of the best coaches in the league in Thibodeau, who's the Jazz's coach again? Can you even name him?

Minnesota Timberwolves 11 - 24
Utah Jazz 22-14

Rudy Gobert is the 2nd best center in the NBA! Easily. 

Still believe in Towns? Go ask Carmelo how many NBA championships those empty stats gave him.

So back to the media-bias.

The list, according to many:

1. Cousins - Cousins +0
2. Towns - Gobert -6
3. Embiid - Gasol -3
4. Whiteside - Jordan -3
5. Drummond - Howard - alot (media bias in the other direction)
6. Gasol - Drummond +1
7. Jordan - Turner -5
8. Gobert - Pau Gasol -10
9. Horford - Horford +0
10. Valanciunas - Towns +8
11. Adams - Mason Plumlee -9
12. Turner - Embiid +9
13. Jokic - Whiteside +9
14. Lopez - Vucevic -3
15. Draymond Green - Lopez +1

So, the five center poster boys who get most love in the media are the players that are mostly overrated.

Media-bias proved I suppose.

I can copy this for every position and the same results would happen.